Trading Strategies

Three Proven Strategies to Follow Top Investors

Learn how to analyze and interpret our trade signals to make informed investment decisions based on institutional investor behavior.

Conviction Trades

Stocks that investors are buying more of - increasing their positions

What Are Conviction Trades?

Conviction trades represent positions where elite investors are actively adding to their existing holdings. These are stocks where an investor is increasing their stake, signaling growing confidence in the investment thesis. We identify these by analyzing position size increases, portfolio concentration changes, and historical performance patterns.

Example Trade Breakdown

Hover over any metric to learn what it means and how to use it

NVDA

NVDA

Very High

NVIDIA CORPORATION

Investor:Tiger Global Management
Score:87.3
Expected Hold:6-8Q
Time Left:5Q
Investor's Price
$118.50
2025-06-30
Filing Price
$135.20
2025-08-14
Alpha
+14.1%
Gained
Current Trade Return
+23.7%
$146.80
Position Size
$127.5M
Portfolio Weight
12.8%
Shares Added
+45.2%
Holding For
2Q

Conviction Level

Our rating of how strong this conviction trade is based on portfolio weight and investor track record

Investor Name

The institutional investor making this trade - research their track record and strategy

Investor Score

Our proprietary score (0-100) based on historical performance - higher is better

Expected Holding Period

How long this investor typically holds similar positions (in quarters)

Time Left

Estimated quarters remaining before the investor might exit based on their patterns

Investor's Price

The average price the investor paid when they bought - compare this to current price

Filing Price

Stock price when the 13F filing was made public - this is when you first learned about the trade

Alpha

Difference between investor's price and filing price - positive means you can still buy cheaper than filing price

Current Trade Return

How much the position has gained/lost since the investor bought - validates their thesis

Position Size

Dollar amount invested - larger positions show more conviction and capital commitment

Portfolio Weight

Percentage of total portfolio - 10%+ is considered high conviction

Shares Added

Percentage increase in position - shows if they're adding to an existing position

Holding For

How many quarters they've held this position so far

Why This Strategy Works

When elite investors increase their positions, they're doubling down on their thesis with real capital. This "adding to winners" behavior signals strong conviction and often precedes continued outperformance. Historical data shows that positions where top investors are actively adding shares tend to outperform the market significantly.

View Conviction Trades

Bad News Bulls

Stocks that have had huge losses but are still owned by investors

What Are Bad News Bulls?

Bad News Bulls are stocks that have experienced significant price drops, but where elite investors continue to hold their positions. These represent contrarian opportunities where sophisticated investors see the market overreacting to temporary setbacks and believe in the long-term recovery.

Example Trade Breakdown

Hover over any metric to learn what it means and how to use it

Stock dropped 28.5% over 3 months
PYPL

PYPL

High

PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC

Investor:Pershing Square
Score:92.1
Expected Hold:8-12Q
Time Left:10Q
Investor's Price
$58.20
2025-03-15
Filing Price
$62.40
2025-05-14
Alpha
-7.2%
Lost
Current Trade Return
+18.2%
$68.80
Position Size
$215.3M
Portfolio Weight
8.4%
Shares Added
+125.0%
Holding For
3Q

Stock Drop Alert

Shows the magnitude and timeframe of the price decline - larger drops often present bigger opportunities if fundamentals are intact

Contrarian Investor

The investor buying during the downturn - look for those with strong track records in contrarian plays

Investor Score

Higher scores indicate better historical performance with similar contrarian opportunities

Recovery Performance

Positive returns validate the contrarian thesis - the stock is recovering from the bad news

Capital Commitment

Large position sizes ($100M+) show the investor is putting significant capital behind their contrarian view

Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by emotion in the short term. When bad news hits, retail investors often panic sell, creating opportunities for patient, research-driven investors. Elite investors have the resources to determine whether a stock's decline is due to temporary issues or fundamental problems. Studies show that contrarian strategies, when executed by skilled investors, can generate significant alpha over time.

View Bad News Bulls

Insider Alpha Signals

Investors' new buys - fresh positions being initiated

What Are Insider Alpha Signals?

Insider Alpha Signals track when elite institutional investors are initiating brand new positions - their "new buys". These represent fresh investment theses where top investors are deploying capital into stocks they didn't previously own, signaling new opportunities they've identified.

Example Trade Breakdown

Hover over any metric to learn what it means and how to use it

AMD

AMD

Very High

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC

Investor:Soros Fund Management
Score:89.7
Expected Hold:4-6Q
Time Left:4Q
Investor's Price
$142.30
2025-04-20
Filing Price
$156.80
2025-06-14
Alpha
-10.2%
Lost
Current Trade Return
+15.4%
$164.20
Position Size
$89.2M
Portfolio Weight
6.7%
Shares Added
+67.3%
Holding For
2Q

Double Signal Strength

Both company insiders AND elite investors are buying - this alignment creates a powerful signal

Institutional Validator

The institutional investor validating the insider buying with external capital and research

Validated Thesis

Positive returns show both the insiders and investors were right about the opportunity

Growing Conviction

Large percentage increases (50%+) show the investor is significantly adding to their position

Why This Strategy Works

Insider buying is one of the most reliable signals in investing. Insiders buy for one reason: they believe the stock is undervalued. When combined with institutional investor activity, you get a double-validated thesis. Research shows that stocks with significant insider buying, especially when accompanied by institutional accumulation, tend to outperform the market over the following 12-24 months.

View Insider Alpha Signals

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