Learn how to analyze and interpret our trade signals to make informed investment decisions based on institutional investor behavior.
Stocks that investors are buying more of - increasing their positions
Conviction trades represent positions where elite investors are actively adding to their existing holdings. These are stocks where an investor is increasing their stake, signaling growing confidence in the investment thesis. We identify these by analyzing position size increases, portfolio concentration changes, and historical performance patterns.
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NVIDIA CORPORATION
Our rating of how strong this conviction trade is based on portfolio weight and investor track record
The institutional investor making this trade - research their track record and strategy
Our proprietary score (0-100) based on historical performance - higher is better
How long this investor typically holds similar positions (in quarters)
Estimated quarters remaining before the investor might exit based on their patterns
The average price the investor paid when they bought - compare this to current price
Stock price when the 13F filing was made public - this is when you first learned about the trade
Difference between investor's price and filing price - positive means you can still buy cheaper than filing price
How much the position has gained/lost since the investor bought - validates their thesis
Dollar amount invested - larger positions show more conviction and capital commitment
Percentage of total portfolio - 10%+ is considered high conviction
Percentage increase in position - shows if they're adding to an existing position
How many quarters they've held this position so far
When elite investors increase their positions, they're doubling down on their thesis with real capital. This "adding to winners" behavior signals strong conviction and often precedes continued outperformance. Historical data shows that positions where top investors are actively adding shares tend to outperform the market significantly.
Stocks that have had huge losses but are still owned by investors
Bad News Bulls are stocks that have experienced significant price drops, but where elite investors continue to hold their positions. These represent contrarian opportunities where sophisticated investors see the market overreacting to temporary setbacks and believe in the long-term recovery.
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PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
Shows the magnitude and timeframe of the price decline - larger drops often present bigger opportunities if fundamentals are intact
The investor buying during the downturn - look for those with strong track records in contrarian plays
Higher scores indicate better historical performance with similar contrarian opportunities
Positive returns validate the contrarian thesis - the stock is recovering from the bad news
Large position sizes ($100M+) show the investor is putting significant capital behind their contrarian view
Markets are driven by emotion in the short term. When bad news hits, retail investors often panic sell, creating opportunities for patient, research-driven investors. Elite investors have the resources to determine whether a stock's decline is due to temporary issues or fundamental problems. Studies show that contrarian strategies, when executed by skilled investors, can generate significant alpha over time.
Investors' new buys - fresh positions being initiated
Insider Alpha Signals track when elite institutional investors are initiating brand new positions - their "new buys". These represent fresh investment theses where top investors are deploying capital into stocks they didn't previously own, signaling new opportunities they've identified.
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ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC
Both company insiders AND elite investors are buying - this alignment creates a powerful signal
The institutional investor validating the insider buying with external capital and research
Positive returns show both the insiders and investors were right about the opportunity
Large percentage increases (50%+) show the investor is significantly adding to their position
Insider buying is one of the most reliable signals in investing. Insiders buy for one reason: they believe the stock is undervalued. When combined with institutional investor activity, you get a double-validated thesis. Research shows that stocks with significant insider buying, especially when accompanied by institutional accumulation, tend to outperform the market over the following 12-24 months.
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